CONTACTS:
L. Douglas Wilder
Distinguished Professor
804-827-0776
ldwilder@vcu.edu
Robyn McDougle
Associate Dean of Research and Outreach
804-721-6703
rdmcdougle@vcu.edu
RICHMOND, Va. (September 9, 2025) - The L. Douglas Wilder School of Government and Public Affairs at Virginia Commonwealth University today released findings from its latest Commonwealth Poll, conducted between August 18 and August 28. The poll captures voter sentiment ahead of Virginia’s 2025 statewide election, offering insights into candidate matchups, voter priorities and the issues most important to Virginians.
Governor Wilder said the results point to greater competitiveness across the three statewide contests:
“With Virginia and New Jersey being the only states holding elections in November, there is much speculation as to what these results portend for the political landscape, not just for the Commonwealth, but across the nation.”
- Governor L. Douglas Wilder
“The latest Wilder School Poll results reveal just how these races have become more competitive. In the contest for lieutenant governor, Senator Ghazala Hashmi holds only a narrow lead over John Reid (45%-41%), despite Governor Youngkin's unprecedented demand that Reid not run for the seat. That speaks volumes about the limits of Youngkin's influence. The governor's race tells a similar story: Abigail Spanberger leads Winsome Earle-Sears 49% to 40%, suggesting that Youngkin's endorsement is likewise not carrying the weight he might have expected. Even Attorney General Jason Miyares, closely tied to this administration, trails former Delegate Jay Jones, 47% to 41%.”
Read the complete poll findings
Key findings
Among registered voters, former Congresswoman Abigail Spanberger leads Lt. Gov. Winsome Earle-Sears 49% to 40%, down from a 12-point margin last month. Nearly half of independents (48%) remain undecided.For lieutenant governor, Sen. Ghazala Hashmi holds a 45% to 41% edge over John Reid, compared to a 10-point advantage a month ago. Former Del. Jay Jones leads Attorney General Jason Miyares 47% to 41%, narrowing from nine points last month.
Margins are tightening in all three statewide contests, underscoring the influence independents and undecided voters may have this fall.
Governor Wilder added that the results also speak to the values and issues shaping the campaign:
“Our elections have never been decided by extremes, but by people who put the Commonwealth first. The issues that matter most—rising costs, protecting rights, and strengthening education—are concerns shared by voters in every community. Virginia has long been a place where independents and undecided voters determine the outcome, reminding us that leaders must represent the people, ALL of the people.
With Virginia and New Jersey being the only states holding elections in November, there is much speculation as to what these results portend for the political landscape, not just for the Commonwealth, but across the nation.”
Top issues influencing voters
When asked which issue would most influence their vote in the upcoming election, 28% of registered voters identified the rising cost of living, followed by women’s reproductive rights (13%) and immigration and education (12%).
These results mirror the results of the poll a month ago.
###
About the L. Douglas Wilder School of Government and Public Affairs at VCU
Ranked in the top 15% of graduate schools of public affairs in the nation by U.S. News & World Report — No. 39 among the top 40 Graduate Schools of Public Affairs, No. 6 in Homeland Security, and No. 33 in Public Management and Leadership — the L. Douglas Wilder School of Government and Public Affairs at Virginia Commonwealth University advances excellence in governance and promotes evidence-based public policy across Virginia and beyond.
The school offers a range of graduate, post-baccalaureate, and doctoral programs in key policy areas, including criminal justice; homeland security and emergency preparedness; public administration; public policy and administration; and urban and regional planning.
Additionally, the Wilder School is home to robust Centers and Institutes for Public Policy, which provide applied research and services in state and local government, social equity, and leadership to clients in government, nonprofit organizations, businesses, and the general public. Learn more at wilder.vcu.edu.
About VCU and VCU Health
Virginia Commonwealth University is a major, urban public research university with national and international rankings in sponsored research. Located in downtown Richmond, VCU enrolls more than 28,000 students in more than 200 degree and certificate programs in the arts, sciences and humanities across VCU’s 12 schools and three colleges. The VCU Health brand represents the VCU health sciences academic programs, the VCU Massey Comprehensive Cancer Center and the VCU Health System, which comprises VCU Medical Center (the only academic medical center in the region), Community Memorial Hospital, Tappahannock Hospital, Children’s Hospital of Richmond at VCU, and MCV Physicians. The clinical enterprise includes a collaboration with Sheltering Arms Institute for physical rehabilitation services. For more, please visit vcu.edu and vcuhealth.org.
About the VCU Commonwealth Poll
For nearly three decades, the VCU Wilder School Commonwealth Poll within the Centers and Institutes for Public Policy has been an important bellwether for policymakers in Virginia and beyond on a range of topics, including voting intentions, economic and workforce development, education, housing, public health, public safety and racial equity. The Commonwealth Poll is a featured 2020 Presidential Election Poll by CNN, approved based on a rigorous review of methodologies and assumptions that ensure that CNN-cited polling entities are employing the gold standard in public opinion research.
Methodology
The August 2025 Commonwealth Poll, sponsored by Virginia Commonwealth University, obtained telephone interviews with a representative sample of 804 adults, ages 18 or older, living in Virginia. Findings referenced in this release reflect the views of 764 respondents who identified as registered voters. Telephone interviews were conducted by landline (80) and cell phone (724, including 526 without a landline telephone). The survey was conducted by Responsive Management. Interviews were conducted in English from August 18, 2025, to August 28, 2025.
In telephone survey research, design weights are often employed to reduce bias, correcting for differences in the probability of selection due to non-response and non-coverage. The sample was weighted in an exit poll design used to match the 2021 Virginia electorate, that is, Virginia voters who voted in the 2021 gubernatorial election. The geographic and demographic weighting parameters were obtained from the 2021 Virginia CNN Exit Poll. Two sampling frames were employed: one frame representing those with a listed landline and a second frame consisting of random digit dial (RDD) cellular numbers. A two-stage weighting procedure was used to weight this dual-frame sample. Weighting was accomplished using the Anesrake package, which implements the American National Election Study (ANES) weighting algorithm. The total sample design effect using the exit poll weighting design for this survey is 1.41 and the margin of error for the entire sample is ±4.10 percentage points.
A combination sample consisted of a listed landline sample and a cellular random digit dial (RDD) sample to represent all adults in Virginia who have access to a listed landline or cellular telephone. Both samples were provided in their proper proportions according to state telephone type usage by Marketing Systems Group, a leader in providing research-based statistical samples. Non-productive numbers were identified and removed from the sample via CELL-WINS, a non-intrusive real-time screening process that identifies active and inactive numbers.
As many as seven attempts were made to contact every landline telephone number, and as many as five attempts were made to contact each cell phone number. Calls were made at different times of day and different days of the week to maximize the chance of contacting potential respondents. Each telephone number received at least one daytime call when necessary.
In addition to the five attempted phone calls for each cell number, cell numbers that were not reachable in five attempts were sent a message via Short Message Service (SMS) with one final request to participate in the study. The SMS message contained a link that would lead the respondent to the internet survey. Of the 724 surveys completed with cell sample, 99 were completed using the link provided in the SMS message. For the landline sample, the computer questionnaire instructed interviewers to ask to speak with the youngest adult currently at home. Selecting respondents in this manner has resulted in data that closely mirrors the population's age when combined with cellular sampling. For the cellular sample type, interviews were conducted with an adult who answered the telephone. Response rates were computed according to American Association for Public Opinion Research standards. Thus, the response rate for the landline sample is 6.3 percent. The response rate for the cellular sample is 8.9 percent.