CONTACTS:

L.Douglas Wilder
Distinguished Professor
Phone: (804) 827-0776
Email: ldwilder@vcu.edu

Robyn McDougle
Associate Dean of Research and Outreach
Phone: (804) 721-6703
Email: rdmcdougle@vcu.edu 

As Governor Youngkin and the General Assembly work through a short session, Congresswoman Spanberger has early lead over Lt. Governor Earle-Sears 44% to 34%.

Today, the L. Douglas Wilder School of Government and Public Affairs at Virginia Commonwealth University released the results of its most recent Commonwealth Poll, conducted between Dec. 18, 2024, and Jan. 15, 2025. 

Read the full Commonwealth Poll results

Politicians across the commonwealth are already preparing for the 2025 election season. With the governor’s mansion at stake, Democratic candidate and Congresswoman Abigail Spanberger (44%) leads Republican candidate and Lt. Gov. Winsome Earle-Sears (34%), with 17% of those polled still undecided. This is outside the poll’s margin of error (+/- 4.75 percentage points). Among Republicans, 75% support Earle-Sears, and among Democrats, 85% support Spanberger. Regarding independent voters, Earle-Sears is preferred (21%) over Spanberger (15%).

"The 10% lead of Spanberger to Earle-Sears (44% to 34%) should cause Earle-Sears to be concerned especially given 25% of Republicans do not show support for her candidacy. Spanberger’s lead, however, could be significantly impacted should Republicans close ranks around Earle-Sears’ candidacy. This is likewise true with independents since they prefer Earle-Sears to Spanberger (21% to 15%).”

– Governor L. Douglas Wilder

Even though the next U.S. Senate election in Virginia is not until 2026, there is speculation that Republican Gov. Glenn Youngkin might pursue the seat of incumbent Democratic Sen. Mark Warner. Respondents were asked whom they would support if the Senate race were held today, and 45% said they would support current Warner, while 38% would support Youngkin. A vast majority of Democrats (88%) stated they would vote for Warner, and most Republicans (82%) said they would support Youngkin. Independents again were more supportive of the Republican candidate, favoring Youngkin (37%) over Warner (16%). 

Wilder said, “In the proposed race between Governor Youngkin and Senator Warner for the U.S. Senate seat, Sen. Warner experiences incumbent support by a majority of voters (45% to 38%).” He continued, “However, the independents showed interesting results in their significant support for Governor Youngkin (37% to 16%) to incumbent Senator Mark Warner.”

Approval of Gov. Glenn Youngkin

Respondents were asked whether they approve or disapprove of the Youngkin’s handling of his job as governor of Virginia. Just over half (51%) of Virginians approve of his performance, and 38% disapprove, reflecting similar approval ratings in the Wilder School’s summer 2024 Commonwealth Poll. Youngkin’s approval ratings for this most recent poll were heavily partisan, with just 23% of Democrats approving of Youngkin’s handling of his role while 83% of Republicans and 57% of independents approve.

Approval of the General Assembly

Virginians were also asked whether they approve or disapprove of how the General Assembly is handling its duties, and answers were fairly evenly split – with 38% approving overall and 39% disapproving. This was similar regardless of party affiliation, with 41% of Democrats, 37% of Republicans and 31% of independents approving of the General Assembly’s performance.

Top issues facing Virginia

Respondents were asked what they consider the top issues currently facing the commonwealth. Almost 6 in 10 voters (59%) said the economy and cost of living were together the No. 1 issue, an increase of 20 percentage points from the Wilder School’s fall 2024 Commonwealth Poll. The economy and cost of living were rated similarly among Republicans, Democrats and independents, at 62%, 55% and 59% respectively. The second-ranked issue cited as the most pressing by respondents was K-12 education, with 14% listing it as their top issue. The remaining items in order of importance were crime/public safety (9%), immigration (7%), and higher education (2%). 

The Commonwealth Poll also measured how informed voters are regarding the top issues facing Virginia. Depending on what issue respondents chose as the most important, they were asked a series of three follow-up questions specific to that issue. These three questions were how informed they are about Governor Younkin’s handling of the issue, how informed they are about the General Assembly’s handling of the issue, and whether they agree or disagree that Governor Younkin and the General Assembly’s approach to the issue are aligned.

“The people clearly show a high interest in the economy and cost of living, K-12 education, crime and public safety, and immigration.”

– Governor L. Douglas Wilder

Economy and cost of living

Of respondents who selected the economy and cost of living as the top issue facing the commonwealth, over half (55%) said they were familiar with Governor Youngkin’s handling of the issue, and 43% were familiar with the General Assembly’s handling. When asked if they agree or disagree that Governor Youngkin’s approach and the General Assembly’s approach are aligned, about 4 in 10 respondents (41%) disagreed, while 27% agreed.

Crime and public safety

Nationally, crime rates are going down. However, many cities are still experiencing increased violence. Given that, respondents who selected crime and public safety as the most important issue facing Virginia were asked how informed they are about Governor Youngkin’s and the General Assembly’s handling of the issue. Around half (49%) said they were informed regarding Governor Youngkin’s handling, while fewer (39%) were informed about the General Assembly’s handling. Only 30% of respondents agreed that Governor Youngkin’s and the General Assembly’s approach to crime and public safety are aligned.

Higher education 

Overall, only 2% of respondents selected higher education as the most important issue facing the commonwealth. Of those respondents, over half (55%) said they were informed about Governor Youngkin’s handling, while less than a quarter (24%) were informed about the General Assembly’s handling of the issue of providing quality and affordable higher education. Regarding approaches, 57% agreed that Governor Youngkin and the General Assembly are aligned, while  21% disagreed. 

K-12 education

Student learning loss has been highlighted since 2020 and the pandemic’s arrival. On the issue of providing quality K-12 education in Virginia, 60% of respondents who selected it as the most important issue facing the state said they were informed about Governor Youngkin’s handling of K-12 education, with 48% informed about the General Assembly’s handling. Just 13% agreed that Governor Youngkin’s and the General Assembly’s approaches are aligned, while almost half (48%) disagreed.

Immigration

The U.S. has seen record levels of illegal border crossings in recent years. Among respondents, immigration was tied for the fourth most selected option, with 7% choosing it as the top issue facing Virginia. Of those respondents, 89% said they were informed about Governor Youngkin’s handling of the issue, while 36% were informed about the General Assembly’s handling. Around a third of respondents (33%) agreed that Governor Youngkin’s and the General Assembly’s approaches to immigration are aligned, while 36% disagreed.

About the L. Douglas Wilder School of Government and Public Affairs at VCU

Ranked in the top 15% of graduate schools of public affairs in the nation by U.S. News and World Report , No. 39 in the top 40 Graduate Schools of Public Affairs, No. 6 in Homeland Security Programs and No. 33 in Public Management and Leadership Programs, the L. Douglas Wilder School of Government and Public Affairs at Virginia Commonwealth University advances excellence in governance and promotes evidence-based public policy in Virginia and beyond. The school offers an array of graduate, post baccalaureate and doctoral programs in virtually every policy area including criminal justice, homeland security and emergency preparedness, public administration, public policy and administration, and urban and regional studies and planning. Additionally, the Wilder School is home to a robust Centers and Institutes for Public Policy that provides applied research in the areas of state and local government, social equity, and leadership and a range of services to clients in state and local government, nonprofit organizations, businesses and the general public. Learn more at wilder.vcu.edu.

About the VCU Wilder School Commonwealth Poll 

For nearly three decades, the VCU Wilder School Commonwealth Poll within the Centers and Institutes for Public Policy has been an important bellwether for policymakers in Virginia and beyond on a range of topics, including voting intentions, economic and workforce development, education, housing, public health, public safety and racial equity. The Commonwealth Poll is a featured 2020 Presidential Election Poll by CNN, approved based on a rigorous review of methodologies and assumptions that ensure that CNN-cited polling entities are employing the gold standard in public opinion research.

Methodology

The Winter 2024 Commonwealth Poll, sponsored by Virginia Commonwealth University, obtained telephone interviews with a representative sample of 806 adults, ages 18 or older, living in Virginia. Telephone interviews were conducted by landline (201) and cell phone (605, including 441 without a landline telephone). The survey was conducted by Responsive Management. Interviews were conducted in English from December 18, 2024, to January 15, 2025.

In telephone survey research, design weights are often employed to reduce bias, correcting for differences in the probability of selection due to non-response and non-coverage. The sample was weighted to match Virginia’s adult population, which was the primary sampling unit. Two sampling frames were employed: one frame representing those with a listed landline and a second frame consisting of RDD cellular numbers. A two-stage weighting procedure was used to weight this dual-frame sample. Weighting was accomplished using the Anesrake package, which implements the American National Election Study (ANES) weighting algorithm. The margin of error for the entire sample is ± 4.73. A combination sample consisted of a listed landline sample and a cellular random digit dial (RDD) sample to represent all adults in Virginia who have access to a listed landline or cellular telephone. Both samples were provided in their proper proportions according to state telephone type usage by Marketing Systems Group, a leader in providing research-based statistical samples. The cellular RDD sample was prescreened for disconnected numbers. 

As many as seven attempts were made to contact every landline telephone number, and as many as five attempts were made to contact each cell phone number. Calls were made at different times of day and different days of the week to maximize the chance of contacting potential respondents. Each telephone number received at least one daytime call when necessary. In addition to the five attempted phone calls for each cell number, cell numbers that were not reachable in five attempts were sent a message via Short Message Service (SMS) with one final request to participate in the study. The SMS message contained a link that would lead the respondent to the internet survey. Of the 605 surveys completed with cell sample, 33 were completed using the link provided in the SMS message. For the landline sample, the computer questionnaire instructed interviewers to ask to speak with the youngest adult currently at home. Selecting respondents in this manner has resulted in data that closely mirrors the population's age when combined with cellular sampling. For the cellular sample type, interviews were conducted with an adult who answered the telephone. Response rates were computed according to American Association for Public Opinion Research standards . Thus, the response rate for the landline sample is 6.4 percent. The response rate for the cellular sample is 8.9 percent.