CONTACTS:

Douglas Wilder
Distinguished Professor
Phone: (804) 827-0776
Email: ldwilder@vcu.edu

Robyn McDougle
Associate Dean of Research and Outreach
Phone: (804) 721-6703
Email: rdmcdougle@vcu

Virginia Poll by VCU Wilder School Proves Prescient in Predicting Tight Race

The October poll from Virginia Commonwealth University’s Wilder School anticipated a close contest in the state, positioning Donald Trump within six points of Kamala Harris, an accuracy unmatched by other surveys.

View full Virginia Commonwealth Poll data on the Wilder School Research and Outreach website

As Virginia’s election results reveal a tighter-than-expected outcome, researchers at the L. Douglas Wilder School of Government and Public Affairs at Virginia Commonwealth University underscored the accuracy of their October poll, which positioned Kamala Harris ahead of Donald Trump by a slim six-point margin. Few other polls had forecast such a narrow race in the Commonwealth, where Harris has now unofficially prevailed by 52% to Trump’s 46%—a margin closely matching the Wilder School’s October findings.

“The methodology, analysis, and leadership of the Wilder School’s Commonwealth Poll is exceptional and unmatched. It has a proven track record that consistently and accurately captures the opinions and perspectives of Virginians on a wide range of issues, including voter preferences in one of the most unpredictable elections in U.S. history,” 
– Susan T. Gooden, Ph.D., dean of the L. Douglas Wilder School of Government and Public Affairs

This marks yet another instance of the VCU Commonwealth Poll providing a reliable reading of Virginia’s political landscape, echoing its prescient 2021 findings that showed then-gubernatorial candidate Glenn Youngkin trailing by just three points in a race many other polls described as a wider Democratic lead.

The Wilder School poll has repeatedly spotted shifts ahead of other measures. In July, the Commonwealth Poll was among the first to capture an erosion in support for President Biden, finding Trump leading Biden by three points (39% to 36%). That early signal foreshadowed Biden’s eventual withdrawal from the race.

In its latest polling, the Wilder School’s alignment with the actual election result underscores a methodical accuracy and offers further validation of its approach, which researchers describe as particularly attuned to Virginia’s evolving political currents.