L. Douglas Wilder
Distinguished Professor
804-827-0776
ldwilder@vcu.edu
Robyn McDougle
Associate Dean of Research and Outreach
804-721-6703
rdmcdougle@vcu.edu
Spanberger’s performance as governor draws almost equally mixed reviews; cost of living remains top issue.
RICHMOND, Va. (July 15, 2026) – Nearly half of registered voters in Virginia (47%) believe the commonwealth is headed in the wrong direction, and a significant majority (72%) oppose a sales tax exemption for data centers, according to the Summer 2026 Commonwealth Poll conducted by the L. Douglas Wilder School of Government and Public Affairs at Virginia Commonwealth University. The statewide survey also finds that 47% of registered voters disapprove of Gov. Abigail Spanberger’s job performance, while inflation and the cost of living continue to be cited as the commonwealth’s top issue (30%).
L. Douglas Wilder, the 66th governor of Virginia and distinguished professor at the Wilder School, said the findings reflect broad public concern about Virginia’s direction and the challenges facing families across the state.
“The findings of the latest Commonwealth Poll present a clear message from the people of Virginia,” he said. “While public opinion may differ on individual issues, the results reflect broad concern about the direction of the commonwealth and the economic pressures confronting Virginia families. ”
On the issue of data centers, 72% of registered voters oppose granting sales tax exemptions as an incentive for their development, and 81% support requiring data centers to offset the demands they place on Virginia’s electric infrastructure.
“Together, these findings show that the public expects economic growth to be balanced with fiscal responsibility and prudent stewardship of taxpayer dollars,” Wilder said.
He added that Spanberger’s job approval ratings are significant – 44% approving and 47% disapproving of her performance – as it is uncommon for a new administration to receive such a negative public assessment so early in its tenure.
“These findings suggest that Virginians are paying attention to the issues that matter most in their daily lives,” Wilder said. “The message from the people is unmistakable: Public trust is earned through leadership that listens, governance that delivers and results that improve the lives of all Virginians.”
Among findings from the latest Commonwealth Poll:
Perceptions of Virginia
Nearly half of registered voters (47%) believe the commonwealth is headed in the wrong direction. Partisan differences are pronounced, with 80% of Republicans and 56% of independent voters saying Virginia is headed in the wrong direction, while 66% of Democrats say it is moving in the right direction.
Data centers in Virginia
Virginia has seen significant growth in data centers in recent years, and they were a major focus of this year’s budget standoff between the House of Delegates and Senate. Prior to the poll, three-quarters of registered voters in Virginia (76%) said they had heard or read about data centers in the commonwealth.
About 8 in 10 registered voters (81%) support requiring data centers to pay additional fees to offset increased electricity demand associated with their operations. Support is high across political affiliations, with Democrats (88%) and independent voters (75%) more likely than Republicans (69%) to support the requirement.
A significant majority of registered voters (72%) oppose allowing data centers to receive a sales tax exemption as an incentive for locating in Virginia, including nearly half (49%) who strongly oppose the proposal. Opposition crosses party lines, with 73% of Democrats, 69% of Republicans and 61% of independent voters opposing the exemption.
Job performance of Spanberger
Registered voters are closely divided in their assessment of Gov. Abigail Spanberger’s job performance, with 44% approving and 47% disapproving. Democrats largely approve of her performance (77%), while most Republicans (89%) disapprove. Half of independent voters (50%) also disapprove of Spanberger’s job performance.
Important issues in the commonwealth
Inflation and the cost of living is cited most (30%) as the top facing the commonwealth, regardless of party affiliation. Other frequently cited issues include political extremism or threats to democracy (12%), housing affordability (11%), government spending and taxes (8%) and the quality of K-12 education (7%).
The findings are consistent with the Summer 2025 Commonwealth Poll, which also identified the cost of living as the top issue (28%).
Among Democrats, political extremism or threats to democracy (17%) and housing affordability (13%) rank as the second- and third-most important issues. Among Republicans, government spending and taxes (16%), followed by immigration (10%), rank second and third.
Paid sick leave requirement
Registered voters in Virginia overwhelmingly support requiring employers to provide paid sick leave to employees, with 64% strongly supporting and 18% somewhat supporting the requirement. Support spans party lines, although Democrats are the most likely to support the law (97%), compared with 76% of independent voters and 63% of Republicans.
Rejoining the Regional Greenhouse Gas Initiative
Virginia recently rejoined the RGGI, a multistate program that requires power plants to pay for carbon emissions. Nearly 6 in 10 registered voters in Virginia (58%) support the commonwealth’s participation in the initiative, while one-third (33%)oppose it. Support is strongest among Democrats (83%), while a majority of independent voters (51%) also support participation. Republicans (65%) are more likely to oppose Virginia’s participation.
College affordability
The average total cost of attending a four-year institution in Virginia is $28,640 a year. Most registered voters in Virginia (79%) believe that cost is too high, including 51% who say it is much too high. That compares with 70% of registered voters who expressed the same view in the Winter 2026 Commonwealth Poll. Just 17% believe the cost is about right.
When asked which policies would help make college more affordable, registered voters most often support expanding work-study opportunities (65%), increasing transfer pathways from community colleges (64%), increasing need-based financial aid and grants (62%), and investing more state funding in higher education (51%).
Democrats are most likely to support increasing need-based financial aid and grants (74%) and expanding work-study opportunities (72%). Republicans favor increasing transfer pathways from community colleges (61%) and expanding work-study opportunities (57%). Independent voters also identify increasing transfer pathways from community colleges (75%) and expanding work-study opportunities (63%) as their preferred options.
A majority of Virginians (54%) believe a four-year college degree provides a good return on investment only for certain fields or majors, while one-quarter (26%) believe it generally does not provide a strong return compared with skilled trades, apprenticeships or entering the workforce directly. Republicans (40%) are more likely than Democrats (19%) and independent voters (20%) to say a four-year degree generally does not provide a strong return on investment.
About the L. Douglas Wilder School of Government and Public Affairs at VCU
Ranked among the top 20% of graduate schools of public affairs in the nation by U.S. News & World Report and nationally recognized for its programs in homeland security and emergency management (No. 8), local government management (No. 21), social policy (No. 22), and public management and leadership (No. 25), the L. Douglas Wilder School of Government and Public Affairs at Virginia Commonwealth University advances excellence in governance and promotes evidence-based public policy across Virginia and beyond.
The school offers a range of graduate, post-baccalaureate and doctoral programs in key policy areas, including criminal justice; homeland security and emergency preparedness; public administration; public policy and administration; and urban and regional planning.
Additionally, the Wilder School is home to robust Centers and Institutes for Public Policy, which provide applied research and services in state and local government, social equity and leadership to clients in government, nonprofit organizations, businesses and the general public. Learn more at wilder.vcu.edu.
About VCU and VCU Health
Virginia Commonwealth University is a major, urban public research university with national and international rankings in sponsored research. Located in downtown Richmond, VCU enrolls more than 28,000 students in more than 200 degree and certificate programs in the arts, sciences and humanities across VCU’s 12 schools and three colleges. The VCU Health brand represents the VCU health sciences academic programs, the VCU Massey Comprehensive Cancer Center and the VCU Health System, which comprises VCU Medical Center (the only academic medical center in the region), Community Memorial Hospital, Tappahannock Hospital, Children’s Hospital of Richmond at VCU and MCV Physicians. The clinical enterprise includes a collaboration with Sheltering Arms Institute for physical rehabilitation services. For more, please visit vcu.edu and vcuhealth.org.
About the VCU Wilder School Commonwealth Poll
For nearly three decades, the VCU Wilder School Commonwealth Poll within the Centers and Institutes for Public Policy has been an important bellwether for policymakers in Virginia and beyond on a range of topics, including voting intentions, economic and workforce development, education, housing, public health, public safety and racial equity. The Commonwealth Poll is a featured 2020 Presidential Election Poll by CNN, approved based on a rigorous review of methodologies and assumptions that ensure that CNN-cited polling entities are employing the gold standard in public opinion research.
Methodology
The Summer 2026 Commonwealth Poll, sponsored by Virginia Commonwealth University, obtained telephone interviews with a representative sample of 804 adults, ages 18 or older, living in Virginia. Telephone interviews were conducted by landline (80) and cell telephone (724, including 528 without a landline telephone). The survey was conducted by Responsive Management. Interviews were conducted in English from June 22, 2026, to July 6, 2026.
In telephone survey research, design weights are often employed to reduce bias, correcting for differences in the probability of selection due to non-response and non-coverage. The sample was weighted to match Virginia’s adult population, which was the primary sampling unit. The geographic and demographic weighting parameters were obtained from the U.S. Census Bureau’s most recent American Community Survey (ACS) data. Two sampling frames were employed: one frame representing those with a listed landline and a second frame consisting of random digit dial (RDD) cellular numbers. A two-stage weighting procedure was used to weight this dual-frame sample. Weighting was accomplished using the Anesrake package, which implements the American National Election Study (ANES) weighting algorithm. The total sample design effect for this survey is 1.74 and the margin of error for the entire sample is ±4.55 percentage points.
The combination sample consisted of a listed landline sample and a cell random digit dial (RDD) sample to represent all adults in Virginia who have access to a listed landline or cell telephone. Both samples were provided in their proper proportions according to state telephone type usage by Marketing Systems Group, a leader in providing research-based statistical samples. Non-productive numbers were identified and removed from the sample via CELL-WINS, a non-intrusive real-time screening process that identifies active and inactive numbers.
As many as seven attempts were made to contact every landline telephone number, and as many as five attempts were made to contact each cell phone number. Calls were made at different times of day and different days of the week to maximize the chance of contacting potential respondents. Each telephone number received at least one daytime call when necessary.
In addition to the five attempted phone calls for each cell number, cell numbers that were not reachable in five attempts were sent a message via Short Message Service (SMS) with one final request to participate in the study. The SMS message contained a link that would lead the respondent to the internet survey. Of the 724 surveys completed with cell sample, 140 were completed using the link provided in the SMS message. For the landline sample, the computer questionnaire instructed interviewers to ask to speak with the youngest adult currently at home. Selecting respondents in this manner has resulted in data that closely mirrors the population’s age when combined with cellular sampling. For the cellular sample type, interviews were conducted with an adult who answered the telephone. Response rates were computed according to American Association for Public Opinion Research standards.[1] Thus, the response rate for the landline sample is 4.9 percent. The response rate for the cellular sample is 8.3 percent.
[1] The American Association for Public Opinion Research. 2016. Standard Definitions: Final Dispositions of Case Codes and Outcome Rates for Surveys. 9th edition. AAPOR.
