If you asked, “What just happened?” after an unprecedented, kaleidoscopic election, you’re not alone. Thankfully, Bob Holsworth, one of Virginia’s leading political analysts, is here to shed light on the outcome of the 2024 presidential election. 

During a recent Wilder School Lunch and Learn virtual presentation, Holsworth, managing partner of Decidesmart, offered keen insights into the key strategies, trends and demographics that led to a second-term victory for President Donald J. Trump. 

>>Watch the complete video presentation

Holsworth explored the shifting sands of the Democratic ticket, which saw Vice President Kamala Harris emerge as party nominee 100 days before the election. Despite Harris’ sprint to define her identity and policies, she could not overcome the fact that Biden had a 40% approval rating and that almost 70% of the public said they were moderately or severely impacted by inflation, Holsworth shared. 

Vital voter demographic and ideological shifts defined Trump’s victory. The Republican party saw greater turnout in Hispanic and female voters than in recent elections. 

“Trump's success on the gender gap was that he had a larger margin among men than Harris did among women,” Holsworth said. “That was something that people did not perceive what was likely to happen in this election. 

Democrats likely overbet on abortion rights as a key voting issue. Holsworth revealed that in many areas, despite rejecting initiatives on abortion restrictions in their states, the same voters still cast a ballot for Trump. 

“They felt comfortable doing both because they had the opportunity to make a statement and change the state policy but at the same time may have voted for Trump on the economic grounds,” he said.

Holsworth relayed how the Democrats have had a more difficult time connecting with the working class, especially young men, and how Republicans used this to their advantage through support from influencers like Elon Musk and Joe Rogan. Trump’s embrace of nontraditional promotion through podcasting and other new media also played a significant role in building support, where traditional means that the Democrats heavily relied on, like knocking on doors and canvassing, may not have paid off. 

Beyond the GOP winning every swing state, Holsworth noted a general nationwide shift to the right. “Almost 90% of the counties in the country moved more Republican. [It] didn't mean that they had a Republican majority, but they moved rightward in their direction. And very similar things happened in Virginia. There are very few counties and localities in Virginia that actually moved toward the Democratic side in this election, compared to 2020.

Holsworth delved into additional issues that influence voter behavior, campaigning strategies, and the impacts of redistricting, as well as the broader implications and consequences on the national political landscape. Holsworth also fielded questions from the audience and moderator Professor Robyn McDougle, architect of the Wilder School Commonwealth Poll — the results of which provided an extremely prescient forecast of election results.

About the presenter

Bob Holsworth, Ph.D., is frequently called on and referenced for his insights as a political analyst. He is the managing partner of DecideSmart and the founding director of the Wilder School. His comments on Virginia and national politics have appeared in The Wall Street Journal, The New York Times, The Washington Post and other newspapers throughout the nation. He has appeared on the major American TV networks and the BBC. He was named one of the 100 Influentials in Virginia Politics by Campaigns and Elections magazine.